A rare November Hurricane is barreling toward the US and could hit as early as this weekend.
Storm Rafael was upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane today and could make landfall anywhere from the Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle.
The storm expected to hit western Cuba and the Isle of Youth within the next 12 hours.
From there, experts predict Rafael will emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight as a hurricane.
Tropical storm conditions are anticipated in Florida Keys, with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issuing a warning to residents.
Americans have been advised to secure loose outdoor objects due to strong winds and flooding.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger said that small changes in Rafael’s strength and the winds around it can make a big difference in where it goes next.
The storm gets a bit stronger or if the winds that push it change direction, its path could shift.
A spaghetti model – so-called because the lines resemble strands of pasta – revealed Rafael has four possible paths to the US, but has the highest probability of making landfall in Louisiana.
However, the NHC has issued a tropical storm warning for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys today, as Rafael could deliver up to three inches of rainfall and increase tornado risk as it passes by the Sunshine State.
‘Bands of rain containing gusty winds will impact this area through Wednesday night. A few tornadoes cannot be ruled out in the Keys and far southwestern Florida as well,’ The Weather Channel reported.
The NHC stated that it’s still too early to determine when and how Rafael will impact the Gulf Coast of the US, but residents should continue to monitor the forecast for updates.
As of 10:00am ET, Rafael was located roughly 130 miles south-southeast of Havana and tracking northwest at 14 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, according to the NHC.
A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, and locals should brace for ‘damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge and destructive waves,’ according to the advisory.
The storm will also drop heavy rain over parts of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, the NHC stated, including Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.
Once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, Rafael is expected to weaken as the environment becomes increasingly less conducive for the hurricane to maintain its intensity, the NHC stated.
‘It is also possible Rafael is torn apart by strong winds high in the atmosphere and dissipates in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall,’ Deger said.
An alternate path prediction has Rafael tracking westward across the Gulf instead of heading north toward the US. If that happens, the impact to the US would be minimal, according to AccuWeather.
If Rafael weakens, but remains intact, and turns toward the northern Gulf Coast, it could enhance rainfall along a cold front this weekend into early next week, The Weather Channel reported.
Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Though it is not expected to directly impact Florida, tropical storm conditions could put added strain on local communities still reeling from hurricanes Helene and Milton, which ravaged the state within two weeks of each other.
These storms caused widespread damage in the Sunshine State, killing an estimated combined total of 54 people.
According to the Office of Insurance Regulation, estimated insurance claims as a result of both Helene and Milton have exceeded $4 billion in Florida.
As Rafael tracks toward the US, Floridians should regularly monitor updates to the weather forecast, the NHC advised.
It is very rare for hurricanes to hit the US in November.
That’s because this is the last month of the Atlantic hurricane season, and favorable conditions for tropical storm formation have decreased.
A total of 287 hurricanes have made landfall in the US since record keeping began in 1851, and of those, only four hit in November, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) database.
The most recent one – Hurricane Nicole – hit Florida in November 2022. Before that, the US hadn’t seen a November hurricane since Katie in 1985.
Rafael is the strongest hurricane to move through the northwestern Caribbean in November since 2009, according to NOAA.
As the storm closes in on Cuba, experts say it’s possible that it could still strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall.
Nine storms – including Rafael – have rapidly intensified in the Atlantic basin this year, fueled by unprecedentedly high ocean temperatures.
Rapid storm intensification is becoming more common as the atmosphere and oceans warm due to climate change, according to NOAA.
